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Nuclear Momentum: The Signals Can’t Be Ignored
Uranium is back, and it’s becoming one of the most strategic resources of the decade.
Saâd Dhif
October 01, 2025
Zooming out
On our Stock Thematics, and following our last week discussion on Rare Earth Metals, we address today one of the most interesting Investment Thematic of the decade.
Across energy policy, defense, and global trade, the signs are multiplying: nuclear power is staging a comeback.
In the U.S., the Department of Energy is preparing to allocate nearly $900 million to rebuild domestic uranium enrichment capacity ahead of the 2028 deadline to phase out Russian imports. At the same time, the U.S. and U.K. have signed an historic pact to secure long-term uranium supply for advanced reactors. Officials are calling it nothing less than a nuclear renaissance.
These developments matter because they compress the timeline. Policy is moving faster than supply chains can adapt, and that creates opportunities for investors.
The Market Has Only Begun to React
The spot price of uranium has climbed from $29/lb in 2021 to $77/lb today, more than doubling in just a few years.
Long-term contracts still hover around $80/lb, but analysts expect them to return to triple digits, as they did briefly in early 2024.
Cameco, the world’s largest publicly traded uranium producer, has already locked in commitments for roughly 28 million pounds per year through 2029.
Uranium price
Yet even with this momentum, uranium equities remain far below their historical peaks.
The Global X Uranium ETF (URA), a benchmark for the sector, has rallied from $20 in 2020 to around $48 today, but that’s still less than half of its 2011 highs.
Source: Morningstar
This tells us the market has priced in some optimism, but not the full scale of what’s unfolding.
Governments and Capital Are Moving in Sync
The September announcements underline a new reality: nuclear is not just an energy play, but a strategic priority.
The Pentagon awarded $1.5 billion to BWX Technologies to build a pilot centrifuge plant for uranium enrichment, directly linking nuclear fuel supply to U.S. defense readiness.
The Department of Energy has allocated $156 million to restart the Palisades reactor in Michigan, marking the first attempt in U.S. history to bring a retired reactor back online.
Urenco, Europe’s key enrichment provider, is expanding its U.S. facility by 700,000 SWU between 2025–2027, a 15% boost to domestic enrichment capacity.
These moves converge on one goal: secure the nuclear fuel cycle before shortages appear.
Why This Matters Now
Nuclear energy is emerging as the only scalable base load option to meet surging electricity demand, especially as AI and data growth strain outdated grids.
Governments are accelerating licensing, cutting tariffs, and injecting capital to ensure supply.
At the same time, the World Nuclear Association projects a 28% increase in reactor demand by 2030, while warning that mine supply could fall by half between 2030 and 2040 as deposits deplete.
This is a setup where rising demand collides with tightening supply, a classic recipe for higher prices.
Investor Takeaway
Momentum is clear:
Uranium spot prices are rising again.
Long-term contracts are set to tighten further.
ETFs and uranium miners are seeing record inflows.
Governments are moving faster than markets can keep up.
The convergence of policy, trade, and capital around nuclear is compressing the cycle — and the window for investors is narrowing.
⚠️ This newsletter is intended to inform you about trends and thematics shaping global markets. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy uranium stocks today.