Let’s Zoom Out

Dear readers,

Something unusual is happening across global markets. Equities are stalling. Commodities are accelerating. Gold is going vertical. And the labour market just turned negative.

Markets do not move randomly. They move through relationships. And right now, those relationships are starting to break.

Much has happened since our last newsletter, so this one will be a bit longer.

The Macro Picture

Three shocks are converging.

The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has entered its tenth day. New strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure pushed Brent briefly above $119 before it settled around $106, crossing $100 for the first time since 2022. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE cut production. Qatar suspended LNG exports. G7 finance ministers are coordinating with the IEA on a potential strategic petroleum reserve release.

At the same time, February's Non-Farm Payrolls came in at -92,000 — the market expected +50,000. The Kaiser Permanente strike and ongoing federal job cuts pushed unemployment to 4.4%. Fewer jobs, but wage growth held at 3.8%. That is not stability. That is an economy where costs rise while employment shrinks.

And the third shock: Scott Bessent confirmed US global tariffs will rise from 10% to 15% after the Supreme Court blocked the IEEPA framework. Energy shock, labour shock, trade shock: all layered, all heading into Q2.

The ISM "prices paid" component jumped to 70.5. This is the number most people overlook. Inflationary pressure was already rebuilding before the oil spike even started. Now the Fed is in a position where cutting rates risks fuelling inflation further, and holding rates risks deepening the employment decline. Wednesday's CPI could be the tipping point.

The Intermarket Divergence

This is where the real story is. Step back from individual charts and look at the relationships between asset classes.

Equities are stalling. The S&P 500 failed to break 7,050 and is now at 6,777. The Nasdaq rejected at 26,427 and sits at 24,884. When multiple indices stall near highs simultaneously, the question is simple: is this consolidation before continuation, or quiet distribution?

Commodities are doing the opposite. Brent spiked aggressively toward $114 before marking a sharp selloff today, pulling back to $86.

What does this mean? The initial geopolitical shock was priced violently, and the market is now searching for a new equilibrium. If oil stabilises above $90, the inflation narrative returns with force. If it settles back toward $80, the worst may be priced in. This is the single most important variable for every other market right now.

Gold is going vertical: parabolic expansion above $5,100.

Gold is the market's fear gauge for monetary systems. Vertical moves in gold usually signal inflation fears, currency instability, or liquidity concerns. Capital is rotating into hard assets. That alone should make you pause.

Silver is compressing between $84 and $92 after a blowoff expansion to $120+.

Compression after an explosive move is not bearish. It is energy building. If silver breaks $92, the next leg could accelerate quickly, reinforcing the broader commodity strength narrative.

Let's be clear about what this pattern means. In normal risk-on environments, equities rise, commodities remain stable, and gold consolidates. Right now we have the opposite. Equities stalling, commodities accelerating, gold expanding. This is not a typical risk-on structure. When this kind of divergence appears, it often signals a regime shift, not necessarily an immediate crash, but a rotation in how capital flows through the system.

The Digital Asset Landscape

ETF flows are returning — quietly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded two consecutive weeks of net inflows for the first time since October 2025: $569 million last week, after $787 million the week before. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 22: still firmly in "Fear."

Is this a buy signal? No. A stabilisation signal, perhaps. The worst of the panic selling has likely passed. That does not mean the next leg up has begun. Confusing the two is one of the most expensive mistakes in this market.

Stablecoins at $313 billion. A new all-time high. The ECB published a working paper warning that widespread stablecoin adoption could drain bank deposits and weaken monetary policy transmission. In the US, banks are lobbying against the CLARITY Act's provisions allowing yield on stablecoin balances. Trump called this opposition "unacceptable." Polymarket gives the Act roughly 70% odds of passing in 2026.

This matters because stablecoins sit at the intersection of two forces reshaping the financial system: central banks fearing loss of control over the money supply, and a parallel monetary infrastructure being built on transparency and real asset backing. This is about the future architecture of money itself.

Tokenised real-world assets: $24.9 billion. Nearly 4x growth in one year. US Treasuries and commodities drove 58% of the expansion. Solana surpassed Ethereum in RWA holders for the first time (154,942 vs 153,592), though Ethereum still holds nine times the value at $15.4 billion. The RWA market is diversifying: private credit, institutional funds, and commodities are emerging as major growth drivers.

This is the infrastructure we have been writing about. Tokenised assets are no longer a concept. They are a market.

Crypto Structure: Compression Across Majors

BTC, ETH, and SOL are all compressing. Not trending. Not collapsing. Compressing.

Bitcoin: Range between $73,500 resistance and $65,000 support. BTC pushed to $73,000 since Saturday, got rejected, and is drifting back toward $67,000 equilibrium. The rejection was not violent: small candles, gradual drift, cooling volume. Range continuation, not reversal.

Ethereum: Tightening between $2,150 and $1,890. Highs getting lower, but lows holding. This creates a spring-like structure — the more it coils, the more force when it breaks. Reclaiming $1,990 with conviction opens $2,150 again. Losing $1,890 sweeps liquidity toward $1,830.

Solana: Weakest structure, range between $95 and $78. Repeated tests of $78 are consuming liquidity at that level. If it breaks cleanly, the next pocket sits around $67.

The longer these ranges persist, the larger the eventual breakout.

Two Scenarios

Scenario 1 → Bullish continuation: S&P breaks 7,050, Nasdaq reclaims 26,427, oil cools below $90. Inflation pressure eases, risk assets melt up. Classic late-stage liquidity expansion.

Scenario 2 → Macro rotation: S&P loses 6,600, Nasdaq loses 24,500, oil holds above $90. Capital rotates from growth into hard assets. Gold and commodities lead. Equities correct. Volatility expands.

Both are possible. This is why professionals focus on conditions, not predictions.

The Week Ahead

Wed 11 (US): CPI → first February inflation reading. Hot = no rate cuts. Soft = everything changes.

Thu 12 (US): Jobless claims. With payrolls already negative, a rise accelerates the growth-scare narrative.

Fri 13 (US): GDP + Core PCE + Durable Goods → a triple reading covering growth, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and business investment appetite.

Your Playbook

Stay disciplined. Focus on BTC, ETH, SOL. Build long-term exposure through DCA rather than timing the bottom. The edges of the range are where opportunity lives, not the middle.

Altcoins: only with a specific edge, short duration. This week only AI agent (+12%) and AI (+3%) sectors posted gains. Everything else was negative. Until multiple sectors show positive performance across consecutive weeks, treat any rally as isolated, not structural.

Compression builds pressure. Pressure moves markets. The question is when, and in which direction.

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