Saâd's Crypto Market Outlook

Markets test key levels as macro, liquidity, and fear collide

Author

Saâd Dhif
November 24, 2025

In partnership with

Zooming Out

This week is all about macro. Between the PPI, retail sales, GDP, and PCE data, any unexpected print could shatter the current low-volatility environment.

But tread carefully—Thanksgiving week means reduced volume and thinner liquidity, which can lead to sharper, less predictable market moves.

Your Move:

  • Stay tactical, not aggressive.

  • Use light DCA entries if data is favorable.

  • Stick to quick tactical trades if volatility spikes.

  • Stay patient and keep dry powder in case macro shocks return

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Macro Minute: Good Earnings, Bad Reaction

  • Nvidia beat earnings, but the market didn't celebrate. Nasdaq dropped –2.7%, volatility surged (VIX jumped from 20 to 28), and investors rotated into defensive sectors like consumer staples.

  • Job market: Soft landing… with a catch. U.S. added 119k jobs, beating expectations, but unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. That complicates the Fed’s rate cut calculus.

  • Rate cut odds? Still a coin flip. Markets wavered between optimism and doubt all week. After NY Fed’s Williams hinted at dovishness on Friday, December rate cut odds bounced back to ~70%.

Europe: Expansion Without Momentum

  • Eurozone PMI shows continued expansion in services, but manufacturing dipped back under 50. Job cuts ticked higher. Overall: stable but uninspiring.

Geopolitics: War Headlines Still Matter

  • U.S.–Ukraine talks in Geneva hinted at progress. European proposals are evolving. Too early for conclusions, but energy and European cyclicals may respond short-term.

Crypto Ecosystem Pulse

It was another painful week.

  • Crypto ETPs saw outflows of $2B—the third worst week of the year.

    • BTC funds: –$1.3B

    • ETH funds: –$680M

  • This marks the third consecutive week of net outflows, with investors staying on the sidelines awaiting macro clarity.

The CMC Fear & Greed Index is now at 11: deep in "Extreme Fear."
Market sentiment is scraping the bottom, with liquidity thin, ETF redemptions accelerating, and macro fog thick.

The market’s been risk-off across all sectors:

  • RWA: –8.6%

  • Infrastructure: –19%

  • BTC: –10%

  • AI: One of the worst performers — speculative narratives suffer most when liquidity dries up.

Only a few tokens closed in the green:

  • TNSR: +250% (tokenomics revamp & lockup extensions)

  • Ready (Gaming) and GRASS (AI) also made the podium.

Bitcoin (BTC)

BTC

BTC broke the $92,900 support and retested the major $83,230 level.

So far, it held. We’re now hovering around $86K, forming a base.

📊 Key zones to watch:

  • Reclaiming $92,900 = early signal for rebound

  • If that confirms, path opens back to $100K+

  • Failure = downside risk to $76,400–$74,650, an important accumulation zone last tested in April.

Ethereum (ETH)

NASDAQ (Bloomberg)

ETH dropped below $2,900, turning that level into resistance.
Next key support = $2,121, potential rebound zone.
Reclaiming $2,900 flips structure bullish and signals potential reentry into its summer consolidation range.

Solana (SOL)

Still in its descending channel. Currently testing the $127 support.

  • Breakdown = fast slide to $95

  • Hold + defend = bounce potential back toward $157

Still too early to call: watch how this lower trendline reacts.

Liquidity Watch: A Turning Point?

The Fed just confirmed it will end QT (quantitative tightening) starting December 1st. That means:

  • They’ll reinvest maturing Treasuries & MBS

  • No more draining $95B/month from the system

This isn’t full QE yet… but it’s close.
Liquidity expansion is coming, and historically, that’s been rocket fuel for:

  • Tech

  • Crypto

  • AI & semis

  • Growth equities

The Fed is lifting the weight off markets’ shoulders after three years of tightening.
Add a potential rate cut in December, and we could be entering a fresh risk-on phase —> if macro data doesn’t derail the shift.

Final Word

We’re in a window where volatility, fear, and low liquidity combine into a strange brew.

But beneath the surface, supports are holding and the Fed is blinking.
If macro data plays nice this week, it could trigger the first leg of a relief rally, especially in BTC, ETH, and growth stocks.

But remember: this is still tactical territory, not full risk deployment.

Plan your trades. Protect your capital. Position with intent.

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Stay strategic. Stay grounded. Stay halal.
Believe or not, next phase is here.

—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance

Invite Your Friends

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