Saâd's Weekly Market Outlook

Zooming Out

We’re entering a critical inflection point.

Last week, the crypto market experienced two brutal back-to-back “Black Fridays.”

Over $20 billion in positions were liquidated following Trump’s tariff announcement and subsequent volatility, leading to pain for overleveraged traders and growing fear across the board.

But while most see fear as a warning, those who understand the cycle see it as an opportunity.

What Just Happened: 2 Waves of Liquidations

• Oct 10: Trump’s tweet reignites trade war concerns → massive deleveraging event.

• Oct 17: Market retests lows → flushes out remaining long positions.

• Total liquidated:
  ➤ $19.4B (wave 1)
  ➤ $1.2B (wave 2)

This isn’t just volatility, it’s a strategic market reset.

And now, the fear is visible on every chart:

• Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index:
  → Dropped from 71 (Greed) to 24 (Extreme Fear) in just days.
  → Current level: 29 (Fear), the lowest since early 2024.

• Google Trends:
  → Crypto interest down.
  → Traders stepping back.
  → But wallets holding 1 to 1,000 BTC are accumulating quietly.

Behind the Panic: Structure is Changing Fast

Bitwise’s latest market note says it clearly:

Let’s break that down:

• Miners offloaded 51,000 BTC (~$5.7B) to secure profits.

• Long-term holders sold 265,000 BTC last month: taking profits, not exiting.

• Smaller players are accumulating and rebalancing.

📉 This is what Bitwise calls a shift from capitulation to reaccumulation.

And if we go by historical cycle length (BTC = ~1,064 days bottom to top)…
We’re 7 days away from the expected cycle peak (see below):

So either:

1. This is the top, and we consolidate or correct for months...

2. Or we’re breaking out of the historical pattern for a longer, smoother bull market driven by ETFs and institutional adoption.

What to Watch Now

✅ BTC consolidating above 120K
✅ ETH reclaiming 4K after hitting support at 3.5K and 4K
✅ SOL bouncing from the green accumulation box at 160–180
✅ Total3/ETH and Total3/SOL showing clear bottoming
✅ On-chain accumulation from smaller wallets

Meanwhile in Japan: The Stablecoin Race Accelerates

Japan’s largest banks are launching yen- and dollar-backed stablecoins for B2B and cross-border payments. This isn’t a test, it’s real infrastructure deployment.

• Japan Post Bank will issue the DCJPY in 2026

• Mitsubishi Corp leads the pilot phase

• Programmability + instant finality = huge efficiency gains

Asia is now leading the stablecoin movement:

🇯🇵 Japan
🇰🇷 Korea
🇭🇰 Hong Kong
🇸🇬 Singapore

→ All are building compliant, institutional-grade frameworks.
→ The GENIUS Act in the US is also laying the ground for federal-level regulation.

→ Europe? Radio silence

And yes, we’re following this trend closely at Swiss Islamic Finance.

Final Word

The charts show fear.
But the data shows accumulation.
The cycle may be peaking, or expanding.
Stablecoins are being legitimized by governments.
And institutional rotation is accelerating.

The time to be patient was the past three months.
The time to execute is now.

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Don’t react to the noise. Rotate ahead of the crowd.

Next 90 days = wealth transfer.
Stay grounded. Stay liquid. Stay informed.

—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance

Invite Your Friends

If you enjoyed this issue, forward it to someone who’s asking if “Bitcoin is halal”, they’ll thank you later: