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- 2026: The Illusion of Strength & The Bitcoin Opportunity
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Let’s Zoom Out
We are living through an unprecedented time in global macro. The fiat system is trembling beneath the surface.
The U.S. dollar is weakening, and hard assets like gold and silver are going vertical. Gold's Relative Strength Index is at levels not seen in over 50 years. Since the freezing of Russian U.S. Treasury assets in 2022, trust in the dollar has eroded, and we’re seeing the consequences play out in real time.
The petrodollar system, long the bedrock of American hegemony, is now openly challenged by BRICS members. In the meantime, Trump’s tariff threats and geopolitical escalation (Greenland, Venezuela) have only accelerated the move away from Treasuries and into metals.
But where is Bitcoin in all of this?
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Bitcoin Was Built for This… So Why Is It Sidelined?
Many expected Bitcoin to replace gold as the global hedge. Instead, Bitcoin continues to trade like a risk asset, not a safe haven.
This is not a failure. It’s a stage of adoption.
Bitcoin only became an institutional-grade asset this cycle and immediately saw the most successful ETF launch in history. Institutions are involved, but still under-allocated. Only two countries hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. Gold has thousands of years of trust. Bitcoin does not - yet.
But the distinction matters.
Gold is trust-based. Bitcoin is better: trustless, verifiable, and internet-native. In a world increasingly shaped by AI and software, Bitcoin integrates better with the future monetary system.
Bitcoin’s moment will come. Patience is required.
GMI Macro Outlook: A Two-Speed Economy
GMI is one of the core research Swiss Islamic Finance follows, a top tier publication.
According to the GMI January 2026 outlook:
GDP remains strong on paper
Labor markets deteriorate quietly
AI boosts productivity without rehiring
Unemployment drifts toward 6 percent
The Fed is likely to cut rates, but long-term yields may stay elevated as AI raises real-rate expectations and political pressure grows.
We are entering a bifurcated economy:
Capital owners benefit
Labor and households feel the squeeze
Strong GDP, falling inflation, rising unemployment.
This is not a recession. It’s a transformation.
What This Means for Crypto Investors
Bitcoin is maturing quietly in the background.
ETF flows are turning positive again. ETH staking demand is accelerating, with exits near zero. Risk appetite is returning, but selectively.
Safe havens move first. Crypto follows when liquidity improves.
Key levels to watch
BTC: $94,600 → $98,000 → $102,000
ETH: Break above $3,450 opens $4,300+
SOL: Break above $146 confirms continuation
Not the End of Fiat; A Shift in Trust
The fiat system is not collapsing tomorrow. The money printers still work.
But trust is decaying.
Gold is having its run. Let it.
Bitcoin is not gold. It’s something better.
This is the phase to understand, position, and accumulate quietly, before the narrative catches up.
🌍 On the Ground: Swiss Islamic Finance in Dubai
Swiss Islamic Finance had its first public appearance in Dubai last week, and the reaction was clear: the market is ready.
I spoke at DIFC about how AI, economics, and finance are reshaping global markets, and how Swiss Islamic Finance is building Shariah-compliant investment solutions for international investors.
What stood out most was not the numbers, but the people:
→ A strong desire to connect
→ To build long-term relationships
→ To collaborate for real impact
The opportunity is real. Islamic finance is expected to grow from USD 2.2 trillion in 2023 to USD 12.5 trillion by 2033. Swiss savoir-faire can play a key role in bridging Switzerland and the MENA region.
This was our first public step. Many more will follow.
What’s Next
In the next newsletter, I will share insights from our next stop: Doha, where we will take part in Web Summit Qatar, the GEM Summit, and Art Basel.
Stay tuned.
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—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance