We’re starting 2026 with layered signals

Momentum is re-emerging, narratives are heating up, and capital is rotating again.

But before you get carried away with "altseason" dreams, let’s reset with structure, macro clarity, and actionable positioning.

Before we start…

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1. Bitcoin: The Line in the Sand

Despite ETF inflows turning positive again (+471M BTC / +175M ETH in the last 7 days), the market remains in a fragile recovery. As you can see below, BTC is retesting critical resistance:

If BTC fails to reclaim and hold this zone, altcoin strength will fade quickly. Every cycle proves the same: Bitcoin still drives the liquidity tide.

• Above $94.6K: Continuation likely.

• Below: Expect chop or retrace to $83K/$76K supports.

🎯 Bottom line: No BTC strength = no sustainable altseason.

2. Ethereum: Quiet Leadership Is Building

While most are distracted by smaller alts, ETH continues to quietly regain strength.

Our ETH strategy remains intact from November’s divergence play. Entries around $2,850 have already paid off. But the next move depends on whether ETH can break and hold the $3,450–3,690 zone.

🧠 Why this matters:

• ETH/BTC strength = capital rotation permission.

• ETH holds = altseason stays viable.

• ETH breaks = back to BTC or sidelines.

ETH is the bridge. If ETH leads, the rest follows.

3. Solana: Breakout, But Watch Your Timing

SOL just broke out of its multi-month downtrend… but don’t FOMO just yet.

Momentum is strong, but Stoch RSI is overheated. This means one thing:

• Break higher fast → extension possible.

• Stall here → sellers re-enter.

📍Key level: $147

• Above = runway to $170–177

• Below = chop or retrace

This is a momentum asset: no follow-through = no continuation.

Macro: Don’t Sleep on China

China’s factory data just moved back into expansion territory, a first since April:

This uptick matters.

• China PMI back above 50 → signal of a cyclical growth bottom

• Global risk appetite may quietly follow

• Historically, Chinese New Year seasonality is bullish for crypto

In fact, Bitcoin has averaged +26% returns from now until late Feb over the past 6 years, with 2022 as the only exception.

Liquidity Is Dripping Back In

Multiple liquidity signals are now pointing UP, not aggressively, but quietly and consistently:

• Federal Reserve balance sheet is stabilizing

• Fed liquidity is rising:

• Institutional flows returning via ETFs:

• Ethereum network just hit record daily transactions:

Translation: Risk assets are no longer in a drought. But water flows slowly… starting with BTC, then ETH, then alts.

Venezuela, De-Dollarization & Gold

While crypto fought for trend, macro took a darker turn.

The U.S. military action in Venezuela is not about “drugs” or “democracy.” It’s about the petrodollar.

• Venezuela was selling oil in yuan, bypassing SWIFT

• 303 billion barrels = threat to dollar dominance

• Maduro wanted to join BRICS: a coalition already pushing de-dollarization

And meanwhile, gold just posted its best yearly gain since 1979

Markets are starting to price geopolitical risk and the slow dismantling of dollar supremacy. 

For crypto investors, this sets the stage for Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition to return to the spotlight, not as a tech trade, but as hard money protection.

Positioning Summary

✅ BTC: Reclaim of $94.6K = go time
✅ ETH: Still leading quietly. Eyes on $3,450–3,690
✅ SOL: Breakout confirmed —> but follow-through is key
✅ Macro: China recovery + Fed liquidity + ETF flows = risk backdrop stabilizing
✅ Geopolitics: Venezuela reminds us what Bitcoin was built for

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Let the market show its hand. We’ll stay prepared.

—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance