The Dollar, the Trouble, and Bitcoin

Why 2026 Could Be the Year Everything Changes

Author

Saâd Dhif
January 04, 2026

In partnership with

Happy New Year, and welcome to 2026.

I wanted to send this newsletter tomorrow. But the markets are waking up and geopolitics never sleep.

In the first days of January, the U.S. launched a sudden military intervention in Venezuela. Officially, it’s about “security” and “drug trafficking.”

But beneath the headlines lies the real story.

One that could change the future of the global financial system, and your role in it as a Muslim investor.

Before we start…

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Venezuela, Oil, and the End of the Petrodollar

Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves on Earth: over 300 billion barrels.

But in 2018, it did something that made Washington nervous.

It stopped selling oil in U.S. dollars.

Instead, it began accepting Chinese yuan, euros, and rubles. It applied to join BRICS. It opened direct payment rails with China that bypassed SWIFT. It became the first major oil nation actively participating in the global de-dollarization movement.

In short: it challenged the petrodollar.

For 50 years, the petrodollar system - born from a 1974 deal between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia - forced every country to hold dollars to buy oil.

This created artificial demand for USD, allowing America to print money, run endless deficits, and maintain global hegemony.

But Venezuela broke that unspoken rule.

And just like Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011), it was punished for doing so.

Maduro is now gone.

U.S. oil companies are preparing to “return.”

Venezuelan oil will likely flow again, in dollars.

But something is different this time…

The Petrodollar Doesn’t Have the Same Power Anymore

This invasion is not a show of strength. It’s an admission of weakness.

Because this time, the world is watching.

  • China, Venezuela’s biggest oil buyer, is furious.

  • Russia and Iran - also trading oil outside the dollar - are denouncing the move.

  • BRICS nations are accelerating their own dollar alternatives.

From mBridge to CIPS, new payment systems are already in place.

And the unspoken message is now loud and clear:

“Use the dollar, or get into troubles.”

But here’s the twist:

That message may have the opposite effect.

Because when a currency must be enforced at gunpoint, it’s already losing credibility.

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What This Means for Bitcoin — And You

Let’s return to markets.

Right now, Bitcoin is consolidating.

  • ETFs are seeing lacklustre flows: no multi-week demand yet:

  • Bitcoin just had its least volatile year of the decade:

  • Volatility is low, ETF interest is flat, but macro financial conditions are quietly loosening again (NFCI trending positive).

But the real driver in 2026 may not be rate cuts or ETF flows.

It may be this:

Bitcoin is the only major monetary system that doesn’t require military power to survive

It doesn’t need a navy.

It doesn’t need regime change.

It doesn’t need SWIFT.

It just runs.

Quietly, transparently, incorruptibly.

As de-dollarization accelerates - sometimes by force, sometimes by design - more capital will be looking for a politically neutral settlement layer.

Gold works.

Bitcoin works even better.

We are entering the phase where geopolitical volatility becomes monetary volatility.

The market isn’t broken.

It’s just waiting.

And when it moves, it won’t ask for permission.

Final Word & Tactical Outlook

  • Bitcoin is behaving like a tech stock, not a safe haven.

  • ETF flows need to stabilize with at least 5+ consecutive days of inflows for a new leg up.

  • Altseason was suppressed but things are moving. BTC dominance is breaking its support line. If we break below 57% (orange line), it’s risk on:

  • Watch January for reacceleration: not because of retail interest, but because macro liquidity is quietly returning, and political catalysts are now in motion:

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Patience is the most underrated form of conviction.

We’ll be ready when the tide turns, because tides always do.

—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance