The Market Is Calm. History Says That’s a Signal.

The summer slowdown isn’t a pause. It’s a setup.

Author

Saâd Dhif
July 07, 2025

Sponsored by

Not All AI Notetakers Are Secure. Here’s the Checklist to Prove It.

You wouldn’t let an unknown vendor record your executive meetings, so why trust just any AI?

Most AI notetakers offer convenience. Very few offer true security.

This free checklist from Fellow breaks down the key criteria CEOs, IT teams, and privacy-conscious leaders should consider before rolling out AI meeting tools across their org.

Salam from Geneva

Right now, everything feels… slow.

Bitcoin is holding range.
Alts are correcting or moving sideways.
Liquidity is stable. Volume is light.
And the market — from equities to crypto — seems to be “on pause.”

But what if I told you that this is exactly how the big moves start?

Because what we’re seeing right now isn’t stagnation.
It’s historical rhythm — repeating itself quietly, yet again.

The July Pattern That Won’t Go Away

Crypto has seasons. It always has.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns (%), Coinglass

🟡 June is historically a cool-down month. Low energy, sideways action.
No major breakouts. No meltdowns. Just indecision.

But what comes next?

🟠 July is where momentum builds quietly.
BTC starts to climb. Risk appetite returns — not with hype, but with early signals.

🔴 August & September? That’s where the shakeouts happen.
Low volume. Summer complacency. Flash dips designed to trap late entries and shake out weak hands.


We’ve seen it in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
But those dips?
They were setups for Q4 (4th Quarter) rallies.

The Setup Is Back - With Macro Fuel Behind It

Let’s look at the data.

According to The Bitcoin Layer, current liquidity levels are matching May 2024, just before markets pushed higher.

This year, the TBL Liquidity Index is at its most expansionary point in 10 months — supported by a weakened U.S. dollar and a favorable global backdrop.

📉 DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is in a clean downtrend —> a green light for risk assets
📈 S&P 500 is mirroring last year’s summer grind-up —> driven by similar liquidity levels
🟢 Bitcoin is sitting on strong liquidity support.

The takeaway?

The signals aren’t loud, they are never at this stage.

The market isn’t dead. It’s loading.

If You Wait for Fireworks, You’ll Miss the Fuse

When the breakout headlines hit, it’s already too late.

Smart investors are building positions now — while everything feels “boring.”
They’re mapping altseason rotations, setting alerts, managing risk - not scrolling Twitter waiting for permission.

If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, this is your chance to flip the cycle:

  • Stop chasing pumps

  • Start building a clear strategy

  • Learn how liquidity drives market timing

  • Prepare for what could be one of the most important quarters of the cycle

⚡ Ready to Get in Position?

Your Crypto Lighthouse – We break down altseason rotations, capital flows, and the macro context behind every major move. Stay 3 steps ahead of retail.

Your Equity Lighthouse – Prefer a slower, conviction-based approach? We help you position in value, growth, and real-world assets

Quiet markets are where serious money builds positions.
Don’t let comfort become your excuse.

—

See you next week,
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance

And btw, you can still get 1 free month: