This Week’s Playbook: Shakeout. Rebuild. Reload.

Zooming out

Salam & welcome back to your weekly dose of clarity.

Last week felt like a war of attrition. Between rate narrative whiplash, mega-cap weakness, and traders still nursing wounds from the recent sell-off; conviction is low, volatility high, and the mood… sideways.

But under the surface? Something is shifting.

This is how bottoms build.

I called this "The Great Shakeout of 2025."
You’ll want to remember it that way.

Macro | The calm after the shutdown?

• Liquidity ≠ gone. Just paused.
  The U.S. shutdown drained liquidity faster than markets expected. Reverse repo is empty. QT (Quantitative Tightening) still doing its job. But once the shutdown ends, the Treasury will unleash $250–350B in spending, and QT ends.
  💡 Liquidity flood incoming.

• Fed tone = patient, not panicked.
  Rate cut odds for December dropped from 90% → 66% after Powell’s speech. QT is being phased out, but the market is no longer pricing an aggressive dovish pivot. Expect sideways chop.

• AI stocks get clipped.

  

  
  Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Oracle… combined losses top $850B in market cap since Oct 31. AI story isn’t over, but the market wants margins, not just vision.
  📉 "AI Trade" went from euphoric to careful real quick.

• S&P earnings surprise to the upside.

  

  
  US corporates just posted their strongest YoY earnings growth since 2021, according to Deutsche Bank.
  Translation: Macro weakness is relative —> earnings still deliver.

Crypto Positioning | No rush, but no retreat

Markets are stabilizing. The panic has subsided. The mood: cautious accumulation.

• BTC & ETH see institutional outflows
  → $932M out of BTC funds
  → $438M out of ETH funds
  This isn’t exit panic. It’s just wait-and-see until macro + ETF clarity returns.

• Solana remains the outlier.
  → $118M in new inflows last week
  → 9th consecutive week of net buys
  → Bitwise’s BSOL ETF alone: $127M
  Momentum is clear. Institutions are stacking SOL quietly, driven by strong L2/infrastructure narrative.

  

• BTC dominance is fading
  → Suggests capital rotation, not exit
  → Altcoins (especially SOL, RNDR, INJ) are starting to outpace BTC
  🧠 Smart money is shifting selectively, not passively.

  

  Bitcoin Dominance

Regulatory | Big headlines incoming

🚨 Leveraged Spot Crypto on US Exchanges?
CFTC’s Caroline Pham confirms it’s in motion. Could land next month.

If approved, this would:

• Increase spot volumes (vs. perpetual casino)

• Improve liquidity depth

• Offer regulated leverage for institutions

This isn’t another meme alt SZN. This is infrastructure-level change. Pay attention.

Your Move

If you're under-exposed:

If you're already positioned:

We are not in a trend reversal. We are in a reset. And reset = opportunity.

Position Recap

Here’s how we’re playing it:

• BTC: Waiting for confirmation. Accumulated between $99K–$101K. No trade zone between $106K–$125K.

• ETH: Accumulated between $3K–$3.5K. Targeting $4.95K for trend shift.

• SOL: Reclaim $215 weekly close → expansion to $230+.

• TOTAL: Holding above ATH zone (3.72T). Bullish structural signal.

We are not rushing entries.
We are not chasing breakouts.
We are playing the long game.

The patient win this cycle.
Not the clever. Not the loud. Not the leveraged.

Technical Outlook

BTC | $106K

• Support: $103’250 / $102’000 / $98’000

• Resistance: $106’800 / $116’000 / $126’300

BTC defended $98K twice. Each time, strong rejection from bears. We’re now trying to re-enter the midrange. Above $106.8K and the path toward $116K opens. We’re still consolidating, but the structure is bullish unless $98K breaks.

📌 No trade zone: 104K–106K. Wait for confirmation.

Technical Outlook

ETH | $3'606

• Support: $3’550 / $3’350

• Resistance: $3'690 / $4'760 / $4'956 (ATH)

ETH bounced clean off $2,900 support. Strong push back to $3,690 resistance. A breakout above this reopens the 4K+ conversation. For now: range between $3,400 and $3,700.
🚨 Don’t forget: ETH looked dead in 2020 before doing a 6x.

Technical Outlook

SOL | $168

• Support: $140 / $157

• Resistance: $177 / $205

Nine weeks of inflows. SOL is showing true strength. If we break $177–$180 cleanly, we’re likely heading back to $200+.
For now, range between $157–$177. Accumulate near bottom of range.

Technical Outlook

TOTAL MARKETCAP | $3.87T

• Holding above $3.72T is bullish

• Structure is healthy

• Liquidity is stabilizing
  The next move will be decisive — we’re either ready to expand toward $4.2T or we dip for one last flush toward $3.3T.

Final Word

Markets don’t move in straight lines.
This isn’t a breakdown. This is the buildup.
Don’t mistake silence for safety. Or boredom for irrelevance.

The big liquidity wave is forming.
Don’t. Miss. It.

You’ve seen the signals. Don’t sit on the sidelines.

This cycle won’t wait. It’s already leaving behind the passive, the noisy, and the leveraged.

If you want:
→ Real-time insights, not recycled news
→ A community that plays structure, not hopium
→ And a strategy grounded in conviction, not hype

Then it’s time to level up.

—
Saâd
from Swiss Islamic Finance

Invite Your Friends

If you enjoyed this issue, forward it to someone who’s asking if “Bitcoin is halal”, they’ll thank you later: